The short answer: 1966
For a 30-year retirement with 60% stocks and 40% bonds, someone who retired in January 1966 could safely withdraw only 3.73% of their starting savings, raised each year for inflation. That is the lowest of every start year from 1928 to 1996, and it is why “safe” withdrawal rates sit below 4%. With the classic 4% rule, a 1966 retiree ran out of money in year 26.
1966 is not a close call that depends on one assumption. It was the hardest start for 20-, 25-, 30-, 35- and 40-year retirements, and with 40%, 60% or 80% stocks. Only an all-stock portfolio changes the answer, to 1929.
The 10 hardest years to retire, 1928–1996
| Rank | Start year | Safe rate, 30 years | The 4% rule ($40,000 from $1M) | What came next |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1966 | 3.73% | Ran out in year 26 | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 2 | 1965 | 3.85% | Ran out in year 28 | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 3 | 1968 | 3.90% | Ran out in year 28 | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 4 | 1969 | 3.90% | Ran out in year 28 | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 5 | 1964 | 4.12% | Lasted, $95k left | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 6 | 1967 | 4.16% | Lasted, $156k left | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 7 | 1962 | 4.18% | Lasted, $127k left | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 8 | 1973 | 4.23% | Lasted, $232k left | Heading into the 1973–74 crash and the inflation of the 1970s |
| 9 | 1937 | 4.38% | Lasted, $325k left | Heading into the 1937 crash |
| 10 | 1972 | 4.43% | Lasted, $499k left | Heading into the 1973–74 crash and the inflation of the 1970s |
60% S&P 500 stocks and 40% 10-year Treasuries, rebalanced yearly, withdrawals at the start of each year, no taxes or fees. “Safe rate” is the highest inflation-adjusted withdrawal that lasted all 30 years. Every start year is in the safe withdrawal rate by year table.
Why the mid-1960s were worse than the Depression
A 1966 retiree walked into 16 years of high inflation and going-nowhere markets. From 1966 through 1981, prices rose 196%, while stocks lost about 14% of their value after inflation. Bonds lost to inflation too. Withdrawals that rose with prices ate into savings that weren’t growing, year after year.
1929 was a sharper crash but a different kind of disaster. Prices fell in the early 1930s, so each dollar went further, and Treasury bonds held up. With 60% stocks, a 1929 retiree could still withdraw 4.60%. With 100% stocks, though, the crash did more damage: 1929 becomes the hardest start, at 3.49%.
Hardest start year by retirement length and mix
| Length (60% stocks) | Hardest start | Safe rate |
|---|---|---|
| 20 years | 1966 | 4.61% |
| 25 years | 1966 | 4.05% |
| 30 years | 1966 | 3.73% |
| 35 years | 1966 | 3.58% |
| 40 years | 1966 | 3.46% |
| Mix (30 years) | Hardest start | Safe rate |
|---|---|---|
| 40% stocks | 1966 | 3.59% |
| 60% stocks | 1966 | 3.73% |
| 80% stocks | 1966 | 3.82% |
| 100% stocks | 1929 | 3.49% |
1966 or 1968?
Some studies name 1968 or 1969 as the worst year instead. In our data they are close behind: 1965 supported 3.85%, and 1968 and 1969 3.90% each. Small differences in the bond series, fees or monthly versus yearly data can reorder them. The lesson is the same either way: the danger zone is the late-1960s window, not one unlucky year.
What about 2000 and 2008?
Both started with a crash, but neither has a full 30 years of data yet. So far, both are holding up at 4%. With 60% stocks, a 2000 retiree taking the 4% rule still had about $648k of their $1M after 26 years (the low point was about $572k). A 2008 retiree had about $1.32M after 18 years. Follow them year by year: retired in 2000 and retired in 2008.
And the best years
The best start years supported far more: 1982 (10.27%), 1985 (9.55%), 1983 (9.35%). Retirees who started in the early 1980s rode two decades of falling inflation and rising stocks. The gap between the best and worst years is the whole reason retirement plans need a margin of safety.
What this means for your plan
- A plan that survives 1966 survives everything on record. That is what a “safe” withdrawal rate means. Test your own numbers with the retirement planner.
- You don’t have to plan as if 1966 is certain. Most start years supported much more. Guardrails let you start higher and cut back only if a 1966-style stretch actually arrives.
- Inflation was the real enemy. See how it compounds with the retirement inflation calculator, and how a cash bucket avoids selling in a slump.