The short answer
With 60% stocks and 40% bonds, every 30-year retirement since 1928 could have withdrawn 3.73% of its starting savings, raised each year for inflation, without running out. That is about $37,300 a year per $1 million. The hardest start was 1966. The typical start year supported 6.49%, and only 4 start years (1965, 1966, 1968, 1969) needed less than 4%.
Safe withdrawal rate by stock mix, 30 years
| Mix | Hardest start | Typical start (median) | Best start |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40% stocks | 3.59% (1966) | 5.45% | 9.75% (1982) |
| 60% stocks | 3.73% (1966) | 6.49% | 10.27% (1982) |
| 80% stocks | 3.82% (1966) | 7.01% | 10.81% (1949) |
| 100% stocks | 3.49% (1929) | 7.65% | 13.07% (1949) |
The “hardest start” rate is what most people mean by the safe withdrawal rate: it worked in every start year on record. The rest of each portfolio is in 10-year Treasuries, rebalanced yearly.
Every start year at a glance
- 4% or more
- Under 4%
- Hardest start
The danger zone is narrow and specific: retirements that began in the mid-to-late 1960s, just before a decade of high inflation, flat stock prices and bonds that lost to inflation. With 60% stocks, even 1929, the start of the Great Depression, supported 4.60%, because bonds held up and falling prices stretched each dollar. With 100% stocks, 1929 becomes the hardest start at 3.49%. See what happened to people who retired in 1966 and retired in 1929, or read the ranked story of the worst year to retire.
Every start year, 1928–1996
| Start year | 40% stocks | 60% stocks | 80% stocks | 100% stocks | What came next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1928 | 5.65% | 5.64% | 5.37% | 4.87% | Heading into the Great Depression |
| 1929 | 4.92% | 4.60% | 4.11% | 3.49% | Heading into the Great Depression |
| 1930 | 5.15% | 4.96% | 4.53% | 3.95% | Heading into the Great Depression |
| 1931 | 5.39% | 5.56% | 5.46% | 5.10% | Heading into the Great Depression |
| 1932 | 6.27% | 7.26% | 8.06% | 8.63% | |
| 1933 | 5.80% | 7.06% | 8.23% | 9.23% | |
| 1934 | 5.04% | 5.79% | 6.38% | 6.79% | |
| 1935 | 5.08% | 6.02% | 6.82% | 7.44% | |
| 1936 | 4.47% | 5.02% | 5.41% | 5.61% | Heading into the 1937 crash |
| 1937 | 4.03% | 4.38% | 4.55% | 4.55% | Heading into the 1937 crash |
| 1938 | 4.90% | 5.87% | 6.75% | 7.54% | |
| 1939 | 4.31% | 5.02% | 5.62% | 6.10% | Heading into the war years and the inflation after them |
| 1940 | 4.33% | 5.17% | 5.91% | 6.53% | Heading into the war years and the inflation after them |
| 1941 | 4.52% | 5.65% | 6.77% | 7.82% | Heading into the war years and the inflation after them |
| 1942 | 5.45% | 7.10% | 8.84% | 10.62% | Heading into the war years and the inflation after them |
| 1943 | 5.65% | 7.31% | 9.04% | 10.79% | Heading into the war years and the inflation after them |
| 1944 | 5.43% | 6.90% | 8.40% | 9.89% | Heading into the war years and the inflation after them |
| 1945 | 5.27% | 6.63% | 8.01% | 9.34% | Heading into the war years and the inflation after them |
| 1946 | 4.74% | 5.77% | 6.74% | 7.63% | Heading into the war years and the inflation after them |
| 1947 | 5.82% | 7.37% | 8.95% | 10.51% | Heading into the war years and the inflation after them |
| 1948 | 6.40% | 8.21% | 10.09% | 12.00% | Heading into the war years and the inflation after them |
| 1949 | 6.63% | 8.64% | 10.81% | 13.07% | |
| 1950 | 6.14% | 8.00% | 10.05% | 12.21% | |
| 1951 | 5.96% | 7.56% | 9.27% | 11.04% | |
| 1952 | 5.94% | 7.39% | 8.90% | 10.43% | |
| 1953 | 5.65% | 6.97% | 8.34% | 9.70% | |
| 1954 | 5.74% | 7.28% | 8.95% | 10.71% | |
| 1955 | 4.77% | 5.72% | 6.69% | 7.65% | |
| 1956 | 4.36% | 4.99% | 5.59% | 6.14% | |
| 1957 | 4.52% | 5.11% | 5.67% | 6.16% | |
| 1958 | 4.78% | 5.65% | 6.54% | 7.42% | |
| 1959 | 4.30% | 4.77% | 5.20% | 5.58% | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 1960 | 4.34% | 4.71% | 5.03% | 5.28% | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 1961 | 4.22% | 4.70% | 5.15% | 5.56% | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 1962 | 3.89% | 4.18% | 4.42% | 4.62% | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 1963 | 4.04% | 4.49% | 4.92% | 5.31% | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 1964 | 3.82% | 4.12% | 4.38% | 4.60% | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 1965 | 3.64% | 3.85% | 4.01% | 4.13% | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 1966 | 3.59% | 3.73% | 3.82% | 3.86% | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 1967 | 3.89% | 4.16% | 4.39% | 4.57% | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 1968 | 3.79% | 3.90% | 3.95% | 3.95% | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 1969 | 3.84% | 3.90% | 3.91% | 3.86% | Heading into the high inflation of the late 1960s and 1970s |
| 1970 | 4.48% | 4.60% | 4.65% | 4.63% | Heading into the 1973–74 crash and the inflation of the 1970s |
| 1971 | 4.40% | 4.64% | 4.82% | 4.92% | Heading into the 1973–74 crash and the inflation of the 1970s |
| 1972 | 4.22% | 4.43% | 4.58% | 4.66% | Heading into the 1973–74 crash and the inflation of the 1970s |
| 1973 | 4.12% | 4.23% | 4.26% | 4.22% | Heading into the 1973–74 crash and the inflation of the 1970s |
| 1974 | 4.79% | 5.12% | 5.37% | 5.54% | Heading into the 1973–74 crash and the inflation of the 1970s |
| 1975 | 6.16% | 7.04% | 7.93% | 8.83% | |
| 1976 | 5.94% | 6.49% | 7.01% | 7.50% | |
| 1977 | 5.49% | 5.97% | 6.41% | 6.81% | |
| 1978 | 6.26% | 6.96% | 7.65% | 8.32% | |
| 1979 | 7.04% | 7.79% | 8.52% | 9.22% | |
| 1980 | 7.86% | 8.49% | 9.06% | 9.57% | |
| 1981 | 8.54% | 8.75% | 8.87% | 8.93% | |
| 1982 | 9.75% | 10.27% | 10.71% | 11.07% | |
| 1983 | 8.65% | 9.35% | 10.00% | 10.59% | |
| 1984 | 8.75% | 9.22% | 9.61% | 9.92% | |
| 1985 | 8.88% | 9.55% | 10.15% | 10.66% | |
| 1986 | 7.80% | 8.39% | 8.91% | 9.34% | |
| 1987 | 6.91% | 7.57% | 8.17% | 8.68% | |
| 1988 | 7.69% | 8.31% | 8.85% | 9.28% | |
| 1989 | 7.68% | 8.26% | 8.73% | 9.07% | |
| 1990 | 6.95% | 7.37% | 7.67% | 7.84% | |
| 1991 | 7.62% | 8.28% | 8.83% | 9.22% | |
| 1992 | 6.92% | 7.41% | 7.76% | 7.96% | |
| 1993 | 6.94% | 7.52% | 7.95% | 8.21% | |
| 1994 | 6.68% | 7.36% | 7.90% | 8.25% | |
| 1995 | 7.53% | 8.23% | 8.74% | 9.02% | |
| 1996 | 6.35% | 6.87% | 7.22% | 7.34% |
Highest withdrawal rate that lasted 30 years. Bold marks the hardest start for each mix. 1996 is the last start year with 30 years of data; later retirements are still in progress.
How these rates are calculated
- For each start year, we solve for the highest first-year withdrawal (as a share of savings) that, raised with inflation every year, pays every year’s withdrawal in full for 30 years.
- Withdrawals come out at the start of each year; the rest earns that year’s actual return. The mix is S&P 500 stocks (dividends reinvested) and 10-year Treasuries, rebalanced yearly. No taxes or fees.
- The data is the same yearly series behind every Century Tested calculator: stock, bond and inflation returns since 1928, from Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern) and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- This follows the approach of William Bengen’s 1994 study that produced the 4% rule. His figures differ slightly because he used different bond and stock series.
- Want a different retirement length or a 90% or 95% standard? Use the safe withdrawal rate calculator. Flexible spending can start higher: try the guardrails calculator.